Report Card: 2023 MLB Rule Changes

When the MLB announced the rule changes for the 2023 season, they were met with some skepticism and prompted baseball traditionalists to yell at clouds. Baseball, more than any of the four major sports, is beholden to its past and tradition. It is the most aversive to change. Despite consistent calls for the MLB to address pace of play, it failed to address the issue through any rule changes until this season.

Struggling to connect with a younger generation whose attention span was even shorter (and likely losing money off their bottom line), the MLB set out to increase the pace of play and showcase athleticism across the league. Baseball had fallen behind football and basketball with regards to popularity, and baseball had reached a sink-or-swim moment where it needed to adapt to revive their status in the Big Four hierarchy.

The rule changes turned out to truly be Rob Manfred’s redemption story (although others surely deserve credit). But Manfred had fallen heavily out of favor, between his handling of the Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal, exchanging player immunity for their testimony, and then capping it off by calling the World Series trophy “just a piece of metal”. He almost enthusiastically embraced his villain rule during the 2021-22 lockout, smiling on camera while diehard baseball fans were questioning if they would even have a season.

Well, after 2,340 regular season games of tape, the three main rule changes and their grades are laid out below:

1. Pitch Timer

At the beginning of Spring Training, it seemed that this one could be headed for disaster. In a Grapefruit League game in February, Braves’ prospect Cal Conley came up with the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the ninth in a tie game against the Red Sox. With the count at 3-2, Conley was called out on an automatic strike when the home plate umpire ruled that he was not ready to hit at the eight second mark. Witnessing the new rule throw itself into such a high leverage situation was disconcerting, and induced hypothetical images of the World Series ending on a pitch clock violation.

But after some immediate backlash in the early days of spring training, to their credit, the MLB held their water. To the players’ credit, they adapted and instances of violations (both from pitchers and hitters) continued to decline.

The new rule did disproportionately put more pressure on pitchers than hitters, as pitchers committed 70% of all time violations, while hitters accounted for 28.2% (the other 1.8% of violations were committed by catchers or for illegal defensive shifts). The propensity of violations proved to be moderately insignificant, there was only one violation per every 1,358 pitches (all data analyzed was provided by Baseball Savant).

Ultimately, the MLB wanted to increase pace of play and cut down on continuously increasing game times. Last season in 2022, the average length of an MLB game was 3:06, slightly down from the all-time league high of 3:11 in 2021. As you can see below, the rule changes for 2023 were a rousing success, cutting down on average game time by 24 minutes just from last season.

GRADE: A

2. Bigger Bases

For the 2023 season, the bases increased from 15 square inches to 18 square inches. This change reduced the distance between first and second base, and second and third base, by 4 ½ inches. Although the change seemed trivial when it was announced, there were 3,500 total stolen bases across the league, the most since 1987 (3,585) and the second-most in MLB history. Baserunners stole bases at a 79.89% success clip, a 5% increase over the previous 2022 season, per teamrankings.com.

We saw the first-ever 40-70 season, as Ronald Acuña Jr. electrified baseball and finished the season with 41 home runs and 73 stolen bases. NL Rookie of the Year frontrunner, 23-year-old Corbin Caroll, swiped 52 bags while socking 25 home runs. 23-year-old Bobby Witt Jr. came up one stolen base shy of a 30-50 season, finishing his season in Kansas City with 30 home runs and 49 stolen bases. 21-year-old Reds sensation Elly De La Cruz finished ninth in baseball with 35 stolen bases, and 22-year-old Julio Rodriguez became only the 44th player with a 30-30 season.

There is a plethora of young, electrifying, power/speed combo players in the league, players who will continue to be the faces of baseball for years to come. This rule change was another win for MLB’s goal to showcase the athleticism of their premier players, especially young talent.

With the decreased distance between bases and the increase in stolen bases (i.e. more players in scoring position, the rule change also helped elevate scoring). 22,425 runs were scored in 2023, the most since 2019.

GRADE: A

1. Defensive Shift Limits

After what seemed like an eternity of traditional fans yelling “well they should just hit the ball the other way!” by everytime a player complained about the shift, the MLB finally caved in. Understanding that most of those fans have never tried to hit a 96 mph sinker on the black with tail, the league ruled that there must be a minimum of four players on the infield, and at least two on each side of 2nd base.

The league-wide batting average on balls in play (BABIP) jumped six points from .290 in 2022 to .296 this past season, while the total batting average league-wide increased five points from .243 to .248. BABIP is a more effective metric to gauge the impact of the shift ban on offensive production, as it eliminates the effect of strikeouts on batting average, and strikeouts are not directly influenced by the positioning of defenders. As mentioned above, scoring also increased by 7.72%, another win for the league office.

There were only four defensive shift violations across the entire season, so the new rule had an almost non-existent impact with regards to umpires slowing down the game to enforce the rule.

GRADE:A

In a vacuum, the two preeminent goals for the league were to increase pace of play and offense (which in turn would boost attendance). Well, checkmate MLB with a 9.59% increase in league-wide attendance. Now, the challenge lies with baseball continuing to build off the momentum that they generated this season. It will also be interesting to see if the league becomes emboldened by the rousing success of these rule changes and looks to push the envelope further with additional rule changes, or if they are content with standing pat for the time being.

Even for someone who has been heavily critical of Manfred, there is still no objective way to look at these rule changes and their quantitative results and chalk it up as anything other than a W for the commissioner’s office.