NHL Expansion

Status Quo:

As things stand for the 2023-24 season, the NHL has 32 members, perfectly split between 16 Eastern Conference Teams and 16 Western Conference Teams. Each conference has two divisions with eights apiece. There are currently 32 NFL teams, 30 MLB teams, and 30 NBA teams. If the NHL were to expand, it would be the first of the Big Four sports to exceed 32 teams.

Why Are We Having This Conversation Again?

At the NHL board of governors meetings in New York City on October 4th, Gary Bettman was asked about the possibility of NHL expansion. Although Bettman stressed that “expansion isn’t on the agenda” and that the league is not in “a mode where I’m saying, ‘OK, if you’re interested in expansion, submit your applications and we’ll evaluate them,’ like we’ve done previously. We’re not there.” On the surface, Bettman seems to brush aside the idea, but his answer seems more indicative of it being a fluid situation. Plus, Bettman going as far as to explicitly name four markets as expressing interest, hints (Houston, Atlanta, Quebec, & Salt Lake City) that NHL expansion may be coming sooner rather than later. The question seems to be more of a when than if.

The last two NHL expansion teams have been a rousing success. NHL owners received their share of the Vegas Golden Knights and Seattle Kraken expansion fees, $500 million and $650 million respectively. NHL expansion fees are not categorized as hockey-related revenue, so NHL owners are able to skirt sharing any of these profits with the players.

Per a December 2022 valuation by Forbes, the Seattle Kraken checked in as the tenth-highest valued NHL franchise ($1.05 billion), and the Vegas Golden Knights ranked 16th at $965 million (note this valuation was before Vegas’ cup win, so logically it has only increased). For two franchises only two (Seattle) and six (Vegas) years old, the financial incentivisation for the league's other owners and these two franchises' ability to find relative immediate success on the ice makes additional expansion efforts an attractive prospect.

Based on the four markets that Bettman name-dropped, let’s get to ranking them.

Should Be a Lock: Quebec City

Although it has become a running joke that Gary Bettman hates Canada, that may have some merit if Quebec City is not part of the round of expansion. Bettman has continuously awarded expansion teams to American cities such as Nashville, Atlanta, Columbus, Minnesota, Vegas, and Seattle while the Stanley Cup hasn’t been won by a Canadian team since the 1992-93 Montreal Canadiens in June 1993 (Bettman became commissioner in February 1993).

Quebec provincial officials met with NHL brass last year, but the lack of a clear front-runner ownership group with deep pockets is a card that other markets hold that Quebec currently does not. Quebec already has a viable arena, the Videotron Centre in Quebec City opened in 2015, and seats over 18,000. The Quebec Remparts of the QMJHL currently call the arena home.

The Quebec Nordiques became the Colorado Avalanche for the 1995-1996 season, even though NHL fans will always have been robbed of the Rocky Mountain Extreme. A revitalization of a Canadiens-Nordiques rivalry would also be must-watch television. If a wealthy ownership group emerges, Quebec should have all but solidified itself.

Sleeper Leader: Salt Lake City

Quebec’s main weakness is Salt Lake City’s main strength. Utah Jazz and Real Salt Lake billionaire owner Ryan Smith informed the league that he would be interested in financially backing an expansion team in the city. It is also worth noting that Smith owns the arena that the Jazz play in as well, the Delta Center. The arena has hosted the Salt Lake Golden Eagles and Utah Grizzlies of the International Hockey League in years past, and seats 14,000 for hockey events. The ability to use an existing arena that the team owner already owns could definitely launch Salt Lake City’s viability.

The lack of other competing big-four franchises (no NFL or MLB franchise) might also be advantageous for Salt Lake City. The ECHL’s Utah Grizzlies are located in the suburb of West Valley City and are affiliated with the Colorado Avalanche.

In comparison to Quebec, however, Utah is far from a hockey hotbed (only five NHL players have been born in the Beehive State). If the league does expand to Salt Lake City, it will need to be intentional about its efforts to grow hockey in the region and be cautious about creating the Arizona Coyotes 2.0.

Is Third Time The Charm? Atlanta

The Atlanta Flames called Atlanta home from 1972-1980 before taking their franchise north of the border to Calgary. The Atlanta Thrashers began play as an expansion franchise in 1999, but met a similar fate, packing their moving trucks for a Canadian city as well in 2011 to become the Winnipeg Jets.

NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly specifically addressed Atlanta as an expansion market during an NHL/NHLPA media tour last year, striking an optimistic tone, "I think times have changed pretty dramatically and the market demographics have changed pretty dramatically since the first time we went there and then again in 1999," he said. "I think a lot of bigger businesses are in Atlanta [now]."

In his comments, Daly emphasized how critical the location of the rink might be to the success of another Atlanta franchise and pointed to the Atlanta Braves as an example: "I think if you use the Braves as an example, they struggled, as I understand it, attendance-wise for years, even though they had a very successful team on the field. Their latest stadium is in a perfect location and sells out regularly." Daly is referring to the Braves 2017 move from Atlanta’s Turner Field to Truist Park in Cobb County. When the Thrashers were still in town, they called the city’s State Farm Arena home. The arena is still home to the NBA’s Atlanta Hawks. All indications are that the NHL would pursue a suburban-located rink, with suburbs such as Alpharetta and Forsyth County discussed more specifically.

The NHL is clearly intent on the team playing in an Atlanta suburb. With the city’s State Farm Arena off the table then, a new arena would need to be constructed. Similarly to Quebec and unlike Salt Lake City, no clear ownership group has emerged. This issue is especially sensitive to Atlanta hockey fans, as both franchises in Atlanta were doomed largely due to their ownership. The Atlanta Flames were owned by real estate mogul Tom Cousins. When the real estate market collapsed in the late 1970s, Cousins was forced to sell the team with his money running dry: “That wasn’t a management issue,” Richard Adler, a longtime sports executive and former owner of the IHL’s Atlanta Knights, told The Athletic. “That was just pure money. He needed to save his business.”

When hockey returned to Atlanta in the form of the Thrashers in 1999, billionaire founder of CNN and owner Ted Turner, who also owned the cities’ Braves and Hawks, spent his money on the Hawks and Braves, and left the scraps to the Thrashers. And why should he, considering he “doesn’t like hockey” according to Alder. With a low-budget operation and an univested owner, the Thrashers barely stood a stance.

The right ownership group can make or break any city’s expansion bids, but given the strong connection between poor ownership and franchise failure in Atlanta’s hockey past, having the right people in charge is going to be absolutely imperative to its viability.

H-Town Hockey: Houston

Last year, The Hockey News polled 34 of its reporters on which city will receive the next NHL franchise. Houston led the way with 13 votes (for context, Salt Lake City was second with 10 votes, Atlanta received eight votes, and Quebec City only secured two votes). It is also important to note that the poll includes the possibility of relocated teams, and Houston is often the first city brought up in light of Arizona’s hockey struggles.

Houston and Salt Lake City have very similar situations, as the city’s NBA owner, Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta, has expressed some interest. Fertitta reportedly met with NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman to discuss an NHL franchise in Houston, but that was over six years ago. At the time, Fertitta commented that he “would love to bring an NHL team here. It's just got to make sense. It'd be hard to fathom that we can't support an NHL team here. Zero has happened, but we will start looking at it". The fact that there has seemingly been little traction or developments in the years since raises some questions, but there is some speculation that the relative silence may be Fertitta angling himself behind the scenes for a sale of the Arizona Coyotes. Fertitta also reportedly bid $5.5 billion for the Washington Commanders before its sale to Philadelphia 76ers and New Jersey Devils owner Josh Harris, so he apparently has the capital and has it right now.

Similarly to the aforementioned Ryan Smith, Fertitta already owns the intended hockey venue, the Toyota Center, home of the Rockets. The AHL’s Houston Aeros played in the arena from 2003-2013, before relocating to Iowa to be closer to the NHL affiliate Minnesota Wild. While the Aeros were in Houston from 1994-2013, they consistently ranked top 10 in league-wide average attendance. For those who are still skeptical of the ability of hockey to succeed in the Southern United States, the in-state Dallas Stars finished third in NHL average attendance in 2019-20, seventh in 2021-22, and ninth in 2022-23. Like Canadiens-Nordiques, the possibility of a Houston-Dallas rivalry would be fun to watch.

There is plenty of potential in southeastern Texas. Houston is the fourth most-populous city in the country, and the seventh-largest TV market in the States. With the high metropolitan population, the area could also present a very attractive opportunity for the league to grow the sport and set grassroots programs in the area, far more than Atlanta or Salt Lake City.

Gary Didn’t Name Them and Will Never Happen: Honolulu

Ok, maybe the Honolulu idea is almost solely inspired by Jim Craig (Eddie Cahill) sporting a Hawaii Hockey shirt in Miracle. Obviously, this would be an unmitigated logistical nightmare between travel and time changes, so for now the Honolulu Hammerheads will have to just hold their own in NHL24 franchise mode. It will be interesting to see if any one of the major sports ever takes a shot in Hawaii.

Finishing Notes:

It will be interesting to see if the NHL alters their expansion draft process at all during the next round of expansion, giving how quickly the Golden Knights and Kraken have found success (the Golden Knights made the Stanley Cup final in their very first season and have made the playoffs in five of their first six seasons, winning the Stanley Cup last year). Meanwhile, the Kraken made the playoffs in only their second season, knocking off the defending champion Rocky Mountain Extreme Colorado Avalanche. Their early success is a strong deviation from the torment that many expansion franchises endured in their early years.

There are two schools of thought:

1) The NHL will keep the current process because it injects immediate energy into the new markets when teams are performing better. Vegas’ early success, making the Stanley Cup Final in the first season, set an immediate tone and identity for the franchise and its fanbase. Vegas’ game presentation, i.e. having a grown man dressed as a knight on skates taking a giant sword out of a rock at center ice pre-game and their captain pulling a lever on a slot machine, probably just wouldn’t sit the same if they were 21-61.

2) There will be push-back from the existing teams to revisit the expansion draft process from those who subscribe to the idea that expansion teams should have to “pay their dues”. It is also worth noting that the other 32 general managers will likely adapt strategically and be more on their toes during the next round of expansion drafts. Many agreed that other teams were slightly caught off-guard during the Vegas expansion draft, and Vegas’ sound strategy set the stage for their Stanley Cup final run in year one. As Adam Gretz wrote for NBC Sports during the Golden Knights’ 2018 playoff run, “Don’t blame expansion draft rules for Vegas’ success, blame your GM”.

An interesting variable in the entire equation is how the Coyotes’ situation plays out. If the Coyotes are ultimately sold and relocate to one of these cities, then a city that might have previously been out of luck might be able to slide in. Bettman and Daly have also been tremendously outward about the possibility of expansion, so don’t be surprised if some wild card cities' ears perk up and emerge as contenders. For now though, these four markets identified by Bettman are the clear leaders in the clubhouse.